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Canaan Avalon Nano 3S 6 TH
Solo mining odds in perspective
Probability breakdown
| Period | Chance | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| per day | … | … |
| per week | … | … |
| per month | … | … |
| per year | … | … |
| per 5 years | … | … |
| per 10 years | … | … |
How we calculate
For each period we compute: chance per block = your hashrate ÷ network hashrate. We then extend that across the expected number of blocks (144 per day). When network growth > 1.0×, we discretize the timeline into monthly steps and grow the network hashrate iteratively, which gives a more honest long-horizon estimate.
Compared to other long shots
Your odds of finding a block over 1 year, vs. fixed real-world odds.
How we calculate
The probability shown for your selected device is the annual block-finding probability, calculated the same way as the 1-year row in the Probability breakdown above. The other rows are fixed real-world odds from commonly cited statistics: EuroMillions (per ticket), lightning (per year), poker royal flush (per single hand), hole in one (per attempt), 5 sixes (per attempt), meteorite (per year).
Block reward
Plus all transaction fees in the block. If you find one, the full reward goes to your wallet.
How we calculate
Block reward = 3.125 BTC + all transaction fees in the block. The fiat estimate uses the live BTC price (or your manual value) × 3.125. Halving cuts the reward in half roughly every 4 years. The next halving (~2028) drops it to 1.5625 BTC.
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Solo mining basics & deep dives
Read up on solo mining, hardware, odds, and more.
