Probability breakdown

Period Chance Odds
per day……
per week……
per month……
per year……
per 5 years……
per 10 years……
How we calculate

For each period we compute: chance per block = your hashrate ÷ network hashrate. We then extend that across the expected number of blocks (144 per day). When network growth > 1.0×, we discretize the timeline into monthly steps and grow the network hashrate iteratively, which gives a more honest long-horizon estimate.

Compared to other long shots

Your odds of finding a block over 1 year, vs. fixed real-world odds.

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How we calculate

The probability shown for your selected device is the annual block-finding probability, calculated the same way as the 1-year row in the Probability breakdown above. The other rows are fixed real-world odds from commonly cited statistics: EuroMillions (per ticket), lightning (per year), poker royal flush (per single hand), hole in one (per attempt), 5 sixes (per attempt), meteorite (per year).

Block reward

Plus all transaction fees in the block. If you find one, the full reward goes to your wallet.

3.125 BTC ...
How we calculate

Block reward = 3.125 BTC + all transaction fees in the block. The fiat estimate uses the live BTC price (or your manual value) × 3.125. Halving cuts the reward in half roughly every 4 years. The next halving (~2028) drops it to 1.5625 BTC.

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Recent solo block wins

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Real solo miners around the world finding blocks. Updated every minute.

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21energy Solo Mining Calculator v1.0.0 These calculations are estimates based on current network conditions. Actual earnings may vary. This is not financial advice.
How we calculate
Probability breakdown p_block = your_hashrate / network_hashrate p_period = 1 - (1 - p_block)^(144 × days) For each period we compute: chance per block = your hashrate ÷ network hashrate. We then extend that across the expected number of blocks (144 per day). When network growth > 1.0×, we discretize the timeline into monthly steps and grow the network hashrate iteratively, which gives a more honest long-horizon estimate.   Compared to other long shots The probability shown for your selected device is the annual block-finding probability, calculated the same way as the 1-year row in the Probability breakdown above. The other rows are fixed real-world odds from commonly cited statistics: EuroMillions (per ticket), lightning (per year), poker royal flush (per single hand), hole in one (per attempt), 5 sixes (per attempt), meteorite (per year).   Block reward Block reward = 3.125 BTC + all transaction fees in the block. The fiat estimate uses the live BTC price (or your manual value) × 3.125. Halving cuts the reward in half roughly every 4 years. The next halving (~2028) drops it to 1.5625 BTC.   Live network data ...

Bitcoin Solo Mining Calculator

Solo mining: the world's longest-running lottery

Solo mining means pointing your hashrate at the Bitcoin network directly, without joining a pool. If you find a block, you keep the entire reward, currently 3.125 BTC plus all transaction fees, around … at today's price. The catch: with the network running at hundreds of exahashes per second, your individual chance of being the one to find a block is astronomically small.

This calculator turns those odds into clear numbers. Pick your hardware, choose a time period, and see how lucky you'd need to be. Most people lose. A handful hit the jackpot every year. Both outcomes are mathematically expected.

What is Bitcoin solo mining?

Bitcoin runs on a peer-to-peer network where new blocks are added every ~10 minutes. Whoever finds the next valid block earns the block reward (3.125 BTC) plus all transaction fees inside that block. Pool mining splits this reward across many participants based on their contributed hashrate. With solo mining, you keep all of it when you win.

In practice, solo mining is most popular among hobbyists running small home miners like the Bitaxe or NerdAxe, devices that produce a few hundred GH/s to a few TH/s. The math says they'll likely never find a block. The reality is that several do every year, with rewards in the low to mid six figures. The lottery framing is intentional: it's cheap to play, the prize is huge, and the dopamine of even running the experiment is part of the appeal.

How does this calculator work?

We use Bitcoin's public network data (current difficulty and hashrate) pulled live from blockchain.info. Your probability of finding any single block is your hashrate divided by the network hashrate. Over a longer period, we extend that probability across the expected number of blocks (144 per day on average).

p_block = your_hashrate / network_hashrate
p_period = 1 − (1 − p_block)blocks_in_period
blocks_in_period = 144 × days

If you enable network growth in advanced settings, we split the time window into monthly steps and grow the network hashrate by your chosen factor each year. This is more honest for long horizons (5 to 10 years) where today's odds wildly overstate your real chance. Bitcoin's network has historically doubled every ~2 years.

Solo mining vs. pool mining

Both routes use the same hardware, but they trade off variance against expected return.

Aspect Solo Pool
PayoutFull block (3.125 BTC + fees), if you winSteady payouts proportional to your hashrate share
Payout frequencyVery rare, often years or never (depends on hashrate)Daily, sometimes hourly
FeesPool fee 0-2% (most solo pools take a small cut)Typically 1-3%
Effect on BitcoinStrengthens decentralization, direct participationCentralized. Large pools control significant hashrate
SetupPoint your miner at a solo pool URLSame. Point at a pool URL
Best forHobbyists chasing the jackpot, supporters of decentralizationAnyone optimizing for predictable returns

Best hardware for solo mining

For solo mining, what matters is total cost-of-attempt: hashrate per dollar, electricity efficiency, and noise level. You're not optimizing for steady income, you're buying lottery tickets at the cheapest price possible.

Popular solo miners: Bitaxe Gamma Premium (1.3 TH/s), NerdAxe Gamma Premium (1.3 TH/s).

Notable solo block wins

Small home miners do find blocks. Selected examples:

Block #884,225, Bitaxe (~600 GH/s) March 2025

A solo miner running a Bitaxe at roughly 600 GH/s found a block. With network hashrate above 800 EH/s, the expected wait was on the order of a million years. Reward: 3.125 BTC + fees.

Block #842,059, Solo CK (~120 TH/s) May 2024

A 120 TH/s home miner on Solo CK found a block with a single ASIC. Reward exceeded €170,000 at the time.

Block #809,478, Solo CK (~17 TH/s) September 2023

A miner running just 17 TH/s, a small home setup, found block #809,478 on Solo CK. The full reward of 6.25 BTC + fees was paid out.

Block #774,509, Solo CK (~10 TH/s) January 2023

A roughly 10 TH/s solo miner on Solo CK won block #774,509. One of the smallest hashrates ever to find a block at modern difficulty.

Frequently asked questions

Is solo mining Bitcoin profitable in 2026?
Mathematically, no. Pool mining gives more predictable returns for the same hardware. But solo mining offers something pool mining can't: the chance of a six-figure reward in a single block. Whether that lottery-style payoff structure is right for you depends on your goals. If you want steady income, mine to a pool. If you want a cheap shot at a big jackpot, solo mining works.
What's my chance of finding a block with a Bitaxe (1.3 TH/s)?
At today's network hashrate (around 1,300 EH/s), a 1.3 TH/s Bitaxe has roughly a 1-in-1-billion chance per block, or about 1-in-20,000 per year. Over 10 years, your cumulative chance lands somewhere around 0.05%. Despite this, several Bitaxe miners have found blocks since 2023. Use the calculator above for live numbers.
Do I need a Bitcoin node to solo mine?
Not strictly. The simplest setup is to point your miner at a solo pool like Solo CK (solo.ckpool.org) or Public Pool, which run the node for you. They take a small fee (typically 0-2%) and forward the full reward to your wallet if your miner finds a block. For maximum decentralization, you can run your own Bitcoin node and CKpool, but it requires more setup.
What hardware should I buy for solo mining?
For most home solo miners, a Bitaxe or NerdAxe (1 to 2 TH/s, ~15 to 25 W) is the entry point: quiet, low-power, and cheap. If you want bigger lottery tickets and don't mind the noise and heat, ASICs like the Antminer S19/S21 series push you into 100+ TH/s territory. Buying for solo mining is more about cost-of-attempt than expected income, so optimise for hashrate per euro.
Can I lose money solo mining?
Yes. If you never find a block, you've spent the electricity for nothing in financial terms. Most solo miners do, in fact, never find a block. The math is straightforward: solo mining only "pays off" if you win, and most don't. Only solo mine if you can afford to treat the electricity cost as the price of the lottery ticket.
How is the probability calculated?
Your probability of finding any single block equals your hashrate divided by the network hashrate. Over a period of time, the cumulative probability is 1 − (1 − p_block)^N, where N is the expected number of blocks in that period (144 per day on average). For long periods, we also account for growing network difficulty.
What's the difference between this and the regular Bitcoin Mining Calculator?
The regular Mining Calculator assumes you're pool mining and shows expected daily/monthly revenue based on your hashrate share. This Solo Mining Calculator instead shows the probability of finding a block on your own: a binary win/lose outcome instead of a steady stream of small rewards.
What is network hashrate growth?
Bitcoin's total network hashrate has grown roughly 2× per year on average since 2009. As more miners join, your relative share, and therefore your odds, shrinks. For long-term solo mining projections, ignoring growth wildly overstates your chances. Our calculator lets you toggle a growth factor in advanced settings.
What is the current solo block reward?
After the April 2024 halving, the block reward is 3.125 BTC. On top of that, the miner who finds the block also collects all the transaction fees in that block, typically a few percent extra, though it can spike during high-fee periods. At today's price, a single solo block is worth well over €200,000.